NOW, check into StrategyUpdate.com throughout the day for our exclusive new "WALL STREET WIRE". It'll make your job a whole lot easier.
Now scan stories from CNBC, Bloomberg, WSJ, Barrons, Reuters, NYT, IBD and many more news sites across the internet. It's update regularly.
It's posted at StrategyUpdate.com
Showing posts with label stock market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stock market. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Strategy Update News Wire for Tuesday March 4, 2008
Click here for new stories posted at LA Daily Blog.com.
Click here for Zuma Dogg's exclusive LA Daily Blog NEWS WIRE. Scan all LA City news, politics, economy, community and business stories, all in one with a "Zuma Dogg" filter. (Stories feed from LA Times, CNBC, CBS/NBC/ABC local affiliates, top Los Angeles blogs, Daily Breeze, Sacramento Bee, Zuma Times, Bloomberg, Drudge and many others.)
zumadogg@gmail.com
Friday, February 15, 2008
Friday 2/15/08 Pre-Bell Update: YIKES! Not gonna be a pretty day on Wall Street (Very Unpretty)
Oil is up above $96 per barrel and gold is back up at record level highs of $915 (as of 8:50 AM). Platinum broke an ALL TIME EVER record high overnight. And all the slow growth recession fears are being reflected in new data released this week and this morning. Plus fears of the bond insurer/subprime mess still yet to find the bottom (based on Paulson's/Bertankie's comments yesterday. And word on the street is finally catching up with Strategy Update's many massive warning that the credit derivatives market is the Shaquille O'Neil sized shoe that is waiting to drop. (It currently falling as we speak. Spreads getting wider.) Plus, due to a new change in SEC filing rules, people who used to have to wait a year to sell stock, can now sell after only six months -- and if things weren't bad enough, that will add several billion dollars worth of stocks that will become available to sell today. (Imagine if a lot of people are in a rush to sell, on top of everything else. Extra pressure on the way down!)
SUMMARY: We told you the February Song of the Month was "Hell's Bells" by AC/DC (as performed by Zuma Dogg and today may prove to be a good reason why.
UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT STRATEGYUPDATE.COM
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Buffett Offers Muni-Bond Insurer "Safety Net", Paulson Announces Homeowners Assistance Plan & GOLD ALERT!!!
IMPORTANT GOLD ALERT FOR 2/12/08 AT STRATEGYUPDATE.COM (This blog's companion web site with updates posted between blog updates.)
GOLD WATCH: Something I've noticed..."Smart Money" (hedge funds/big boys) seems to own Yamana Gold (AUY) more than almost any other gold miner. Here's why I came to the conclusion. When gold is up, or in rally mode...I've noticed AUY is the first gold mining stock to start to go south, when gold prices start to drop. AUY is not necessarily to first to rise back up, when gold prices rally back (however if you do see it rally first, expect the rest to follow), but you can use this "down" indicator to help you be on guard for gold to drop, if you are planning on selling -- or allow you to be ready to buy if you want to buy on the dips.
DOW RALLY (DO NOT BE BAMBOOZLED!): Don't be fooled by the warm and fuzzy feeling that causes Wall Street rallies over these press release announcements like Buffet's $800 billion offer to re-insure municipal bond insurers, as a safety net if they want it. (And one of three insurers Buffett made the offer to already turned down the offer.)
Problem with this nice gesture, is these muni bonds aren't the root of the problem that looms ahead. These are the low risk bonds. However, if they ever get threatened that they are about to lose a "AAA" rating, they can fall back on this offer to avoid the sell off that would occur on a downgrade.
And Paulson announced that the Treasury Department and HUD are going to help keep people in their homes with a new warm and fuzzy, fluff-ball plan that won't make a dent in the subprime problem.
However, Wall Street psychology is a factor, and these announcements will falsely remove some of the fear that has been casting a gloom on the market, and we'll see a short term rally. The Fed, White House, Buffett and everyone else can try as they will to keep the market propped up, and the economic factors in check, but there's no way to artificially keep things propped up in the long run. We're talking stuff of historic proportions ahead.
Please beware -- the credit derivatives market is the big problem here: The spreads are getting wider -- and the problem is bigger (and getting bigger by the day) than the financial institutions have accounted for.
Plus, like subprime affected the housing market, get ready for the same thing to hit the car dealers/auto industry -- and watch for credit card companies to start seeing much later payments, and complete defaults. And as people's homes continue to drop in value, and they end up owing more on the property than it is worth, more and more people will be walking away from the payments and stiffing the banks.
So enjoy any short term rally this month. We think it will be time for a chorus of "Hell's Bells" sometime soon. (Like this month.)
Click here for updates throughout the day, between these daily blog posts, at StrategyUpdate.com. (Investors resource site with news links and 24 live gold, euro and metals charts.) Already posted everything on this blog last night and early this morning. Set a Google Alert for "strategyupdate.com" so these blog alerts will be sent to your email inbox, right away.
GOLD WATCH: Something I've noticed..."Smart Money" (hedge funds/big boys) seems to own Yamana Gold (AUY) more than almost any other gold miner. Here's why I came to the conclusion. When gold is up, or in rally mode...I've noticed AUY is the first gold mining stock to start to go south, when gold prices start to drop. AUY is not necessarily to first to rise back up, when gold prices rally back (however if you do see it rally first, expect the rest to follow), but you can use this "down" indicator to help you be on guard for gold to drop, if you are planning on selling -- or allow you to be ready to buy if you want to buy on the dips.
DOW RALLY (DO NOT BE BAMBOOZLED!): Don't be fooled by the warm and fuzzy feeling that causes Wall Street rallies over these press release announcements like Buffet's $800 billion offer to re-insure municipal bond insurers, as a safety net if they want it. (And one of three insurers Buffett made the offer to already turned down the offer.)
Problem with this nice gesture, is these muni bonds aren't the root of the problem that looms ahead. These are the low risk bonds. However, if they ever get threatened that they are about to lose a "AAA" rating, they can fall back on this offer to avoid the sell off that would occur on a downgrade.
And Paulson announced that the Treasury Department and HUD are going to help keep people in their homes with a new warm and fuzzy, fluff-ball plan that won't make a dent in the subprime problem.
However, Wall Street psychology is a factor, and these announcements will falsely remove some of the fear that has been casting a gloom on the market, and we'll see a short term rally. The Fed, White House, Buffett and everyone else can try as they will to keep the market propped up, and the economic factors in check, but there's no way to artificially keep things propped up in the long run. We're talking stuff of historic proportions ahead.
Please beware -- the credit derivatives market is the big problem here: The spreads are getting wider -- and the problem is bigger (and getting bigger by the day) than the financial institutions have accounted for.
Plus, like subprime affected the housing market, get ready for the same thing to hit the car dealers/auto industry -- and watch for credit card companies to start seeing much later payments, and complete defaults. And as people's homes continue to drop in value, and they end up owing more on the property than it is worth, more and more people will be walking away from the payments and stiffing the banks.
So enjoy any short term rally this month. We think it will be time for a chorus of "Hell's Bells" sometime soon. (Like this month.)
Click here for updates throughout the day, between these daily blog posts, at StrategyUpdate.com. (Investors resource site with news links and 24 live gold, euro and metals charts.) Already posted everything on this blog last night and early this morning. Set a Google Alert for "strategyupdate.com" so these blog alerts will be sent to your email inbox, right away.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Gold and Wall Street Update for Wednesday 2/6/08
Here's an update of the past two days worth of updates from the Strategy Update website. StrategyUpdate.com: Updates, newswires and 24 hour metals charts.
Start with a new closing bell update for 2/6/08: After dropping -370 points yesterday, the market rallied as much as up +125 (based on good news at Disney perhaps), before ending on a days low of down -65 points.
That's a give back of -190 points off the days high. And it's never good for the next day when you end on the days low, with a give back like that. Overall, not a lot of confidence, especially with bond insurers and credit derivatives crisis looming. Even many bulls are saying we will be hitting recent lows, again (we dropped to 11,900 range this year, so far.) However, unless some goverment "mircale anvil" falls out of the sky to save the financial industry, SU predicts lows in '08 will be in the 10,700 between now and August.) But even if it's just a drop into the high 11,900 range...don't expect to see the DOW back in the 13,500 range anytime in the first half of '08 (or longer).
NOW, some GOLD TALK, since gold was up in overnight and early morning hours. It came down, slightly, as oil prices dropped on news on increased reserves. But gold has really held it's own (closing at $903.90). And you won't believe it, but I bought ONE gold miner stock in pre-market hours, from my watchlist of 50 miners. IT CLOSED UP 8.93% FOR THE DAY!!! Most other good mining stocks were flat to up +0.00%-+2.00% (GFI, GG, ABX, GLD, SLV, AUY were all in this range.) So for Vista (VGZ) to close up +8.93 is off the hook. But ZD trusted in his Batcomputer when they picked this name off the list this morning. (We posted it this morning...see below.)
2/7/08 UPDATE: Bad news on popular gold miner Newmont Gold (NEM), which is the #2 gold producer in the world, and popular with investors due to their non-hedged gold reserves. However, bad news on the earnings call means stay away from KGC until it shakes out.
HERE'S THE UPDATES FROM THE WEBSITE OVER THE PAST 48 VOLATILE HOURS:
2/6/08: Gold and gold mining stocks are up and outperforming the stock market today. But oil inventories come out in a half hour, and there is expected to be a surplus, so that could drive down the price of oil, and gold along with it. And although there will still be many ups and downs, gold will probably be outperforming the stock market in '08.
Be careful buying gold today, because you can expect the price to drop, based on a rise in oil inventories that most likely will reduce the cost of oil, per barell. However, with recent Fed cuts, and more expected, investors may be hanging on to gold positions, so it may not give back as much as usually expected.
1:30 PM GOLD UPDATE: Batcomputer says 1:30pm will be the peak for gold today. Be prepared for short-term downward price movement based on declining oil prices. (See more below)
Gold miners: But, if you decide you want to buy gold miners today, or in the future, SU likes AUY and VGZ (a nice little engine that could) the most. Also on the list; GCGC, KGC, EGO, UXG, NG, HMY, HL and GOLD. And two safer ones; ABX and NEM. (See news on NEM posted above. GOLD, Rangold Mining, had some news we don't like last week, but it hasn't seemed to hurt the stock, otherwise it would have been our #1 pick.)
Consider the miners above to be the "StrategyUpdate Gold ETF Basket", if we had one. (Once you buy one, stay on top of news releases that may have an effect on the stock.)
PLG and GRZ are two new ones we like, but haven't watched long enough. PLG is tied to Platinum and is kickin' butt today, but see alert below. GRZ is gold reserves. (Research 'em first!)
OTHER GOLD MINERS: These are popular ones, too, that go up and down, proportionately with the others mentioned above. Most of these I just turned cautious on over power outages in S. Africa that slowed production, and may suffer more power reductions in the future: GFI, GG, AU, IAG.
PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM WATCH: Gold is more of a currency, where Platinum and Palladium are industrial metals that have been hotter than gold, this year.)However, an expected drop in car manufacturing is expected to hurt these two metals. Which is why we took PAL (Palladium) off our list, but you can still trade it, as a cowboy. Platinum and Palladium still look to still be squeezing out big gains, today, as metal prices rise, due to shortages in these two metals caused by production outages in Australia and S. Africa. So that may be offsetting the downs you should expect to see in Plat and Pal, as industrial demand drops.
GLD is a popular ETF. (IAU is a similar, lesser talked about gold ETF, too.) It's price is linked to gold bullion prices. It's less risky, than individual mining stocks, but you won't see the big gains, either. I say, forget GLD. GDX is the gold miners ETF, which is tied to gold miners, as opposed to gold, itself. Same thing though...too safe. GRZ is a gold reserve ETF we like better. (Disclosure: VGZ, UXG)
2/5/05 GOLD & DOW ALERT: No gonna be a fun day for gold. Read Friday's prediction on what is going on with gold, today. And you are crazy if you think the DOW isn't about to hit a "rough patch" (as Bush calls it) on the opening bell, over bond insurer crisis and a much worse than expected ISM number (economic number). (All we've done since November-December is warn you about February. But you still aren't ready to believe what is about to happen. Because you never heard the phrase, "historic proportions", so you think you know what you can expect.)
Gonna be a GA-REAT day for SKF...(see alert below).
2/05/08 9:45 AM UPDATE: We told yo azz!!! In the first 15 minutes of trading, SKF is UP 5.73% and the DOW is DOW-N 223 points. (See also: REW, UP 5.74%.)
10:50 AM UPDATE: Batcomputer (SU Indicators) says Dow is ready to drop a little more, below it's current down -180-200 point range And don't look for one of these, "Down 200, then up 300" rally days like we have seen recently, though. If news of the bond insurers continues to scare investors, this could be a slow boil of consecutive DOW-N days. (SKF is a good indicator...when it is up 5%, DOW will be down about 220...and if SKF hits 6%...well, you know what comes next.)
11:35 ALERT!!!: SKF HITS UP +6%...let's see where the DOW goes from here.
12:10 NOON: To those who feel gold is taking only a short term dip, now is the time to start "layering in" your buy. Some folks feel gold is taking more of a long term, downward trend to 850, or below. But Batcomputer on Friday said, Tuesday or Wednesday would be the low point on gold and metals, before they take the big rise, based on all these rate cuts.
12:24 PM -- SKF vs DOW UPDATE As SKF moved to +6%, the DOW moved to -250 points. When SKF was up +5%, DOW was down 220 points. SKF up 4.50%=DOW down -185. It's very predictable. Hope SKF doesn't hit 7% today! Now, SFK is up 6.5% and DOW down 270 points (at 12:42pm). See the pattern!
MORE PATTERNS: 1:12 PM SKF UP 7%, DOW down -285. SFK UP 7.19% = DOW down 300 points (at 1:49PM). SKF UP 7.67% = DOW down 320 points (3:04 pm) SKF UP 8.27=DOW down 360!!! SKF 8.45%, DOW DOW-N 370 points (at closing bell) See the pattern?
SRS: Here comes SRS (Short Real Estate)...
2/4/08 ALERT: When SKF (Short Dow Financials) goes UP, the DOW goes DOW-N! (Click Daily Blog Link for more)
strategyupdate.com
Start with a new closing bell update for 2/6/08: After dropping -370 points yesterday, the market rallied as much as up +125 (based on good news at Disney perhaps), before ending on a days low of down -65 points.
That's a give back of -190 points off the days high. And it's never good for the next day when you end on the days low, with a give back like that. Overall, not a lot of confidence, especially with bond insurers and credit derivatives crisis looming. Even many bulls are saying we will be hitting recent lows, again (we dropped to 11,900 range this year, so far.) However, unless some goverment "mircale anvil" falls out of the sky to save the financial industry, SU predicts lows in '08 will be in the 10,700 between now and August.) But even if it's just a drop into the high 11,900 range...don't expect to see the DOW back in the 13,500 range anytime in the first half of '08 (or longer).
NOW, some GOLD TALK, since gold was up in overnight and early morning hours. It came down, slightly, as oil prices dropped on news on increased reserves. But gold has really held it's own (closing at $903.90). And you won't believe it, but I bought ONE gold miner stock in pre-market hours, from my watchlist of 50 miners. IT CLOSED UP 8.93% FOR THE DAY!!! Most other good mining stocks were flat to up +0.00%-+2.00% (GFI, GG, ABX, GLD, SLV, AUY were all in this range.) So for Vista (VGZ) to close up +8.93 is off the hook. But ZD trusted in his Batcomputer when they picked this name off the list this morning. (We posted it this morning...see below.)
2/7/08 UPDATE: Bad news on popular gold miner Newmont Gold (NEM), which is the #2 gold producer in the world, and popular with investors due to their non-hedged gold reserves. However, bad news on the earnings call means stay away from KGC until it shakes out.
HERE'S THE UPDATES FROM THE WEBSITE OVER THE PAST 48 VOLATILE HOURS:
2/6/08: Gold and gold mining stocks are up and outperforming the stock market today. But oil inventories come out in a half hour, and there is expected to be a surplus, so that could drive down the price of oil, and gold along with it. And although there will still be many ups and downs, gold will probably be outperforming the stock market in '08.
Be careful buying gold today, because you can expect the price to drop, based on a rise in oil inventories that most likely will reduce the cost of oil, per barell. However, with recent Fed cuts, and more expected, investors may be hanging on to gold positions, so it may not give back as much as usually expected.
1:30 PM GOLD UPDATE: Batcomputer says 1:30pm will be the peak for gold today. Be prepared for short-term downward price movement based on declining oil prices. (See more below)
Gold miners: But, if you decide you want to buy gold miners today, or in the future, SU likes AUY and VGZ (a nice little engine that could) the most. Also on the list; GCGC, KGC, EGO, UXG, NG, HMY, HL and GOLD. And two safer ones; ABX and NEM. (See news on NEM posted above. GOLD, Rangold Mining, had some news we don't like last week, but it hasn't seemed to hurt the stock, otherwise it would have been our #1 pick.)
Consider the miners above to be the "StrategyUpdate Gold ETF Basket", if we had one. (Once you buy one, stay on top of news releases that may have an effect on the stock.)
PLG and GRZ are two new ones we like, but haven't watched long enough. PLG is tied to Platinum and is kickin' butt today, but see alert below. GRZ is gold reserves. (Research 'em first!)
OTHER GOLD MINERS: These are popular ones, too, that go up and down, proportionately with the others mentioned above. Most of these I just turned cautious on over power outages in S. Africa that slowed production, and may suffer more power reductions in the future: GFI, GG, AU, IAG.
PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM WATCH: Gold is more of a currency, where Platinum and Palladium are industrial metals that have been hotter than gold, this year.)However, an expected drop in car manufacturing is expected to hurt these two metals. Which is why we took PAL (Palladium) off our list, but you can still trade it, as a cowboy. Platinum and Palladium still look to still be squeezing out big gains, today, as metal prices rise, due to shortages in these two metals caused by production outages in Australia and S. Africa. So that may be offsetting the downs you should expect to see in Plat and Pal, as industrial demand drops.
GLD is a popular ETF. (IAU is a similar, lesser talked about gold ETF, too.) It's price is linked to gold bullion prices. It's less risky, than individual mining stocks, but you won't see the big gains, either. I say, forget GLD. GDX is the gold miners ETF, which is tied to gold miners, as opposed to gold, itself. Same thing though...too safe. GRZ is a gold reserve ETF we like better. (Disclosure: VGZ, UXG)
2/5/05 GOLD & DOW ALERT: No gonna be a fun day for gold. Read Friday's prediction on what is going on with gold, today. And you are crazy if you think the DOW isn't about to hit a "rough patch" (as Bush calls it) on the opening bell, over bond insurer crisis and a much worse than expected ISM number (economic number). (All we've done since November-December is warn you about February. But you still aren't ready to believe what is about to happen. Because you never heard the phrase, "historic proportions", so you think you know what you can expect.)
Gonna be a GA-REAT day for SKF...(see alert below).
2/05/08 9:45 AM UPDATE: We told yo azz!!! In the first 15 minutes of trading, SKF is UP 5.73% and the DOW is DOW-N 223 points. (See also: REW, UP 5.74%.)
10:50 AM UPDATE: Batcomputer (SU Indicators) says Dow is ready to drop a little more, below it's current down -180-200 point range And don't look for one of these, "Down 200, then up 300" rally days like we have seen recently, though. If news of the bond insurers continues to scare investors, this could be a slow boil of consecutive DOW-N days. (SKF is a good indicator...when it is up 5%, DOW will be down about 220...and if SKF hits 6%...well, you know what comes next.)
11:35 ALERT!!!: SKF HITS UP +6%...let's see where the DOW goes from here.
12:10 NOON: To those who feel gold is taking only a short term dip, now is the time to start "layering in" your buy. Some folks feel gold is taking more of a long term, downward trend to 850, or below. But Batcomputer on Friday said, Tuesday or Wednesday would be the low point on gold and metals, before they take the big rise, based on all these rate cuts.
12:24 PM -- SKF vs DOW UPDATE As SKF moved to +6%, the DOW moved to -250 points. When SKF was up +5%, DOW was down 220 points. SKF up 4.50%=DOW down -185. It's very predictable. Hope SKF doesn't hit 7% today! Now, SFK is up 6.5% and DOW down 270 points (at 12:42pm). See the pattern!
MORE PATTERNS: 1:12 PM SKF UP 7%, DOW down -285. SFK UP 7.19% = DOW down 300 points (at 1:49PM). SKF UP 7.67% = DOW down 320 points (3:04 pm) SKF UP 8.27=DOW down 360!!! SKF 8.45%, DOW DOW-N 370 points (at closing bell) See the pattern?
SRS: Here comes SRS (Short Real Estate)...
2/4/08 ALERT: When SKF (Short Dow Financials) goes UP, the DOW goes DOW-N! (Click Daily Blog Link for more)
strategyupdate.com
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
We Told You So Tuesday: DOW will be DOW-N Over Bond Insurer Crisis & Extra Weak Economic Number
10:50 AM UPDATE: YIKES...after opening down -200 points at the bell, and leveling off to down -180, or so...The Batcomputer started going nuts...and raised the alert level, indicating a drop further to the DOW-N -220 to -250 (or -- clears throat -- more level). Watch SFK as an indictor. When it is UP above +5%, or more...start worrying about the DOW being down 220 at that point. So if SKF rises to +6%, or more...you know what is coming next!!! With the scare the bond insurance crisis, and derivatives market has given Wall Street (rightfully so) -- could be a slow boil of many DOW-N -200 points (or more) days this month.
2/5/05 GOLD & DOW ALERT: No gonna be a fun day for gold. Read Friday's prediction on what is going on with gold, today. (See thread on this blog below.)
And you are crazy if you think the DOW isn't about to hit a "rough patch" (as Bush calls it) on the opening bell, over bond insurer crisis and weaker than expected economic numbers. (All we've done since November-December is warn you about February. But you still aren't ready to believe what is about to happen. Because you never heard the phrase, "historic proportions", so you think you know what you can expect.)
2/4/08 ALERT: When SKF (Short Dow Financials) goes UP, the DOW goes DOW-N! (See yesterday's thread below.)
Gonna be a GA-REAT day for SKF! (Price is Right "Loser" Sounder): Whomp, whomp, whomp, whomp...(deflated), Whooooooooooompppppppp.
STAY AWAY FROM GFI & IAG: IAMGOLD (IAG) used to be a good mining stock. It was hit with bad news last week that we brought to your attention, and more bad news today, as it's target is lowered -- today -- most likely based on the news we brought you last week. Gold Fields (GFI) was one of the most recommended at the end of '07. Not anymore based on this kind of news:
This conversation was conducted on February 4th 2008 from . Bellwether Report
Q: What's your professional opinion of Gold Fields Ltd.?
A: We are taking a negative stance on share of Gold Fields Ltd. as we believe the company will experience tough operationally challenges for fiscal 2008.
Q: Why do you take a negative' stance on this stock?
A: One of the biggest issues will be increases to deep level mining risks. As it stands, the company has already announced a 7% decline for its second quarter South African gold production due to health and safety stoppages over the quarter. Adding to this is the rise in the cost of capital expenditures, which will put further pressures on margins. Lastly, the recent power supply shortages that the company has been experiencing as a result of the nations rapidly increasing demand for electric power will surely put a damper on production and profitability for the near future.
Q: What more can you tell us about the Company's current position amid power issues?
A: Currently, Gold Field's power usage has been limited to approximately 90% of its normal power requirement. However, the larger threat is that there is no guarantee that this power level will be sustained. In addition, at current power levels, six of the company's 21 operating shafts will be at risk of closure, seriously putting profitability at risk.
Q: Based on this, what would you tell investors looking to position themselves in this equity?
A: Consequently, we do not advice investing in shares of GFI until we see evidence of improving operationally conditions.
(Strategy Update recommended to pull out of this stock a week ago, or more, based on S. Africa electric problems that affected GFI's production):
When it it time to buy gold, don't buy GFI & IAG.
StrategyUpdate.com for updates, news wires and 24 hours live gold charts.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Why Bertankie and The Fed May Actually Cut Half A Point Tommorow Even Though That Nerd Doesn't Want To Make Wall Street That Happy
ALERT 1/29/08 8:15 AM: GDP and other numbers are coming out and they are sending mixed signals to Wall Street. ALL BETS OFF ON A RATE CUT NUMBER. MAKE SURE YOU ARE PREPARED FOR A DISAPPOINTMENT (NO MATTER WHAT NUMBER YOU ARE LOOKING FOR.) UPDATE SOON!
PLUS, fourth quarter GDP number was up only 0.06% (a bigger number would have indicated more inflation on the way. So the Fed can once again, point to this number to say further cuts (or a big one) is not needed. Set you loss limits now, and for the first time ever in Strategy Update history -- HOPE is part of the strategy, depending on what you are hoping for. WALL STREET STILL WANTS HALF A POINT.
1/30/08 10:30 AM UPDATE: When the ADP (employment number) came out in the 8 am hour, it was good enough to spook Wall Street that there might not be a half point cut. Gold, that was at a record high at the time, started to drop on the news. Within the hour, the GDP number came out, and it indicated to Wall Street that Bertankie and the Fed would HAVE to go a half point, now. And gold started climbing back up from it's five dollar an ounce hit, this morning. And agriculture is at the bottom of the pack today (most down). That's an economic indicator, as well.
FURTHER UPDATES AT STRATEGYUPDATE.COM
Fed announces at 2:00 PM EST. The language and reasoning Bertankie uses (his reasoning behind the numbers) will be important, too. Wall Street will be reading a lot into what he says about what factored into the number.
Alright, so tomorrow, Bertankie may have his name changed back to Bernanke, based on tomorrow's rate cut news. Wall Street has the chance of a .5% point rate cut at 87%. So imagine what will happen if it's anything less. (Wall Street is the biggest bunch of spoiled crybabies on the planet. I know, I know...it's hard being so right in the face of such obvious wrong.)
Normally, I would be saying, "No chance of .5%....25% if anything at all." Reasons being,
* Bernanke doesn't want to appear to be bowing down to a bunch of spoiled crybabies.
* Inflation is on the rise, and a rate cut will make it worse.
* The day they came out with an unprecedented emergency rate cut, last week, turned out part of the problem could have been that rouge trader in France.
* Durable goods number were better than expected.
So they can say, "Well gee, we came out with the full .75% rate cut, last week due to what seemed to be a legitimate global economic crisis. However, at that time, we did not know about the $7 billion in losses from the rouge trader in France. And since inflation is a major concern -- consider the early rate cut to be the rate cut we were going to do today, since it turned out to be for other reasons than we were aware of at the time. And further cuts would offset any benefit, by increased inflation, including higher oil prices, because the oil sheiks in Saudi Arabia have to make up the difference in the weaker dollar -- so they simply hike the price per gallon -- even though there is no added production cost.
HOWEVER...like I said, that's what I WOULD have been saying, except for this little ditty:
Those of you who know me from my political blogging elsewhere, know that I have immersed myself in politics this past couple years, and you hear a lot of things. (Deniro Voice: I heard things.) If you check the StrategyUpdate.com website, you will see that these contacts allowed my to blog about the subprime mortgage crisis on May 5, 2007 -- predicting a bubble burst that would trigger a year long recession starting in November of '07.
Well basically, it happened to the day of the prediction if you check the headlines. And in October, sources recommended pulling out of the stock market entirely (mutual funds and all), because the market was going to start sinking first thing January '08. And we all know what happened.
We also learned that this would cause a big problem in the credit derivatives and bond insurance market. This next shoe, ready to drop, is scheduled to drop in February of '08 (like, next week), when all these derivative options come due, and if you think we had some down 200-300 this past month...
Well, that was just the little wave warning you that the Tsunami is coming. And it ain't gonna be a one week -- or one month sell off. We have already seen things that haven't happened in 70 years, or so. Some things have NEVER happened. You see people who have traded for 20-50 years saying they have never seen a week like last week.
So Bush can try to keep things propped up by visiting the oil sheiks and asking for a break, fiscal stimulus packages, bond insurance bail out talk (even though there wasn't any real talk) -- and the Fed can cut half a point: BUT THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO KEEP THE MARKET ARTIFICIALLY PROPPED UP WHEN THE SUBPRIME AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS END UP BEING MUCH WORSE THAN ANYONE WAS LEADING ON TO.
When people start walking away from their homes (since they now owe more than they are worth, once those teaser subprime rates jump to market rate), banks will not only be stuck with all these homes -- they won't be able to sell them, either. (And they won't be taking in all this money, while the homes sink in value.)
People will be later and later on their credit card payments -- and many will simply walk away from those payments, too.
And when these derivative futures come due, it will be like what happened when everyone options were due last week, and everyone was caught short, and we saw a huge sell-off including all the good and profitable stocks to cover the losses on the others.
Bond insurers will be out of business, and we are already starting to see the leaks in the dam start to sprout water this past week.
And I think the Fed knows this. So even though no cut, or .25% would be the right thing to do in these inflationary times; and even though Bertankie would do the wrong thing -- just to show he doesn't bow down to Wall Street ("Revenge of the Nerd")...
Strategy Update feels there IS still hope for at least the half point Wall Street is throwing a tantrum over -- due to the fact that the Fed is seeing numbers that we haven't seen, yet. And the numbers are very, very small where they are supposed to be big. And very, very big where they are supposed to be small.
11PM UPDATE: 11PM Update (1/29/08): O.K., the Batcomputer now feels the chances of a predicted and accounted for half point rate cut is more likely to happen, than not. Here's what we added to the equation that a computer was not able to deduce:
The Fed usually does not like to cut when the dollar is already weak, and oil is already so high, at risk of adding to inflation.
However, those are in ordinarily bad times. These are extra-ordinarily bad times. (See: Subprime/Credit/Derviatives)
So in this case, the big white elephant in the room, is the biggest elephant in the room ever (on steroids), so the Fed will have to try and prevent the massive fire they can see currently burning over the hill -- and worry about the next fire that these embers will spark, once those flames get hot enough. So yes, it's a rock and a hard place. And I think they're gonna go with the hard place. (Half a point so the entire planet doesn't have to blame him, and they'll worry about inflation as it rises. But only because they also know what lurks in the shadows.) And he can add, "we are prepared to step in as needed...", except insert the word, "inflation", next round.
This may help, too:
Reuters: WASHINGTON/NEW YORK—Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's job rides on protecting the U.S. economy from the worst of the fallout from housing and financial market turmoil, but politics and a few missteps could determine if he wins another term.
And maaaaaaaan, if the Fed don't cut by at least half a point, I hope you are near a fire exit or have a parachute on hand. (Set your loss limits now!)
And on a lighter note, Strategy Update's Zuma Dogg called into C-Span on Sunday to give his prediction on the U.S. Presidential election. I don't necessarily mean anything I was saying, just wanted to rock the boat for some of my friends who drank a little too much Kool Aid.
StrategyUpdate.com's Zuma Dogg calls into C-Span
strategyupdate.com
PLUS, fourth quarter GDP number was up only 0.06% (a bigger number would have indicated more inflation on the way. So the Fed can once again, point to this number to say further cuts (or a big one) is not needed. Set you loss limits now, and for the first time ever in Strategy Update history -- HOPE is part of the strategy, depending on what you are hoping for. WALL STREET STILL WANTS HALF A POINT.
1/30/08 10:30 AM UPDATE: When the ADP (employment number) came out in the 8 am hour, it was good enough to spook Wall Street that there might not be a half point cut. Gold, that was at a record high at the time, started to drop on the news. Within the hour, the GDP number came out, and it indicated to Wall Street that Bertankie and the Fed would HAVE to go a half point, now. And gold started climbing back up from it's five dollar an ounce hit, this morning. And agriculture is at the bottom of the pack today (most down). That's an economic indicator, as well.
FURTHER UPDATES AT STRATEGYUPDATE.COM
Fed announces at 2:00 PM EST. The language and reasoning Bertankie uses (his reasoning behind the numbers) will be important, too. Wall Street will be reading a lot into what he says about what factored into the number.
Alright, so tomorrow, Bertankie may have his name changed back to Bernanke, based on tomorrow's rate cut news. Wall Street has the chance of a .5% point rate cut at 87%. So imagine what will happen if it's anything less. (Wall Street is the biggest bunch of spoiled crybabies on the planet. I know, I know...it's hard being so right in the face of such obvious wrong.)
Normally, I would be saying, "No chance of .5%....25% if anything at all." Reasons being,
* Bernanke doesn't want to appear to be bowing down to a bunch of spoiled crybabies.
* Inflation is on the rise, and a rate cut will make it worse.
* The day they came out with an unprecedented emergency rate cut, last week, turned out part of the problem could have been that rouge trader in France.
* Durable goods number were better than expected.
So they can say, "Well gee, we came out with the full .75% rate cut, last week due to what seemed to be a legitimate global economic crisis. However, at that time, we did not know about the $7 billion in losses from the rouge trader in France. And since inflation is a major concern -- consider the early rate cut to be the rate cut we were going to do today, since it turned out to be for other reasons than we were aware of at the time. And further cuts would offset any benefit, by increased inflation, including higher oil prices, because the oil sheiks in Saudi Arabia have to make up the difference in the weaker dollar -- so they simply hike the price per gallon -- even though there is no added production cost.
HOWEVER...like I said, that's what I WOULD have been saying, except for this little ditty:
Those of you who know me from my political blogging elsewhere, know that I have immersed myself in politics this past couple years, and you hear a lot of things. (Deniro Voice: I heard things.) If you check the StrategyUpdate.com website, you will see that these contacts allowed my to blog about the subprime mortgage crisis on May 5, 2007 -- predicting a bubble burst that would trigger a year long recession starting in November of '07.
Well basically, it happened to the day of the prediction if you check the headlines. And in October, sources recommended pulling out of the stock market entirely (mutual funds and all), because the market was going to start sinking first thing January '08. And we all know what happened.
We also learned that this would cause a big problem in the credit derivatives and bond insurance market. This next shoe, ready to drop, is scheduled to drop in February of '08 (like, next week), when all these derivative options come due, and if you think we had some down 200-300 this past month...
Well, that was just the little wave warning you that the Tsunami is coming. And it ain't gonna be a one week -- or one month sell off. We have already seen things that haven't happened in 70 years, or so. Some things have NEVER happened. You see people who have traded for 20-50 years saying they have never seen a week like last week.
So Bush can try to keep things propped up by visiting the oil sheiks and asking for a break, fiscal stimulus packages, bond insurance bail out talk (even though there wasn't any real talk) -- and the Fed can cut half a point: BUT THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO KEEP THE MARKET ARTIFICIALLY PROPPED UP WHEN THE SUBPRIME AND DERIVATIVE MARKETS END UP BEING MUCH WORSE THAN ANYONE WAS LEADING ON TO.
When people start walking away from their homes (since they now owe more than they are worth, once those teaser subprime rates jump to market rate), banks will not only be stuck with all these homes -- they won't be able to sell them, either. (And they won't be taking in all this money, while the homes sink in value.)
People will be later and later on their credit card payments -- and many will simply walk away from those payments, too.
And when these derivative futures come due, it will be like what happened when everyone options were due last week, and everyone was caught short, and we saw a huge sell-off including all the good and profitable stocks to cover the losses on the others.
Bond insurers will be out of business, and we are already starting to see the leaks in the dam start to sprout water this past week.
And I think the Fed knows this. So even though no cut, or .25% would be the right thing to do in these inflationary times; and even though Bertankie would do the wrong thing -- just to show he doesn't bow down to Wall Street ("Revenge of the Nerd")...
Strategy Update feels there IS still hope for at least the half point Wall Street is throwing a tantrum over -- due to the fact that the Fed is seeing numbers that we haven't seen, yet. And the numbers are very, very small where they are supposed to be big. And very, very big where they are supposed to be small.
11PM UPDATE: 11PM Update (1/29/08): O.K., the Batcomputer now feels the chances of a predicted and accounted for half point rate cut is more likely to happen, than not. Here's what we added to the equation that a computer was not able to deduce:
The Fed usually does not like to cut when the dollar is already weak, and oil is already so high, at risk of adding to inflation.
However, those are in ordinarily bad times. These are extra-ordinarily bad times. (See: Subprime/Credit/Derviatives)
So in this case, the big white elephant in the room, is the biggest elephant in the room ever (on steroids), so the Fed will have to try and prevent the massive fire they can see currently burning over the hill -- and worry about the next fire that these embers will spark, once those flames get hot enough. So yes, it's a rock and a hard place. And I think they're gonna go with the hard place. (Half a point so the entire planet doesn't have to blame him, and they'll worry about inflation as it rises. But only because they also know what lurks in the shadows.) And he can add, "we are prepared to step in as needed...", except insert the word, "inflation", next round.
This may help, too:
Reuters: WASHINGTON/NEW YORK—Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's job rides on protecting the U.S. economy from the worst of the fallout from housing and financial market turmoil, but politics and a few missteps could determine if he wins another term.
Bernanke's four-year term as chairman expires on Jan. 31, 2010. The next president, who will take office in early 2009, may consider whether to tap someone else to lead the Fed.
Check back on this blog later this evening or tomorrow for some of the stocks I like for '08, whether it's a bull or bear market. And remember, I bought one gold mining stock on Friday, and it was up 26% on Monday. (Yes, twenty six percent gain in one day.) Read the rest of this blog and you can follow the predictions and analysis and hopefully you'll check back for update.And maaaaaaaan, if the Fed don't cut by at least half a point, I hope you are near a fire exit or have a parachute on hand. (Set your loss limits now!)
And on a lighter note, Strategy Update's Zuma Dogg called into C-Span on Sunday to give his prediction on the U.S. Presidential election. I don't necessarily mean anything I was saying, just wanted to rock the boat for some of my friends who drank a little too much Kool Aid.
StrategyUpdate.com's Zuma Dogg calls into C-Span
strategyupdate.com
Thursday, January 10, 2008
INVESTOR ALERT: Is Gold About To Rise Substantially Ahead of Bernakie's Comments Today. WE SAY YES!
Although news wires just reported this morning that gold is going down, as investors take profits since gold just hit record highs near and above $890, gold just started to reverse the down trend, at least for this moment, and is rising slightly.
And with price of oil is down today to $93 and change, you would expect gold to sink along with it, not start rising against the oil trend?
Bernakie is going to speak in three hours from now, and Wall Street is expecting a sign as to whether they will give up a nice juicy rate cut they are crying for. And although a rate cut would actually weaken the dollar, and add to inflation...perception is reality, and I think Wall Street is betting that Bernakie WILL INDEED indicate an upcoming rate cut, which would weaken the dollar and cause gold to go up:
Oil is down, yet gold is rising as I type this -- just ahead of Bernakie's speech -- when news wires just reported gold was down on a sell off -- and the trend immediately reversed ???
Either it was the world's shortest sell-off...or Wall Street is increasing their position in gold, betting on a weaker dollar and higher inflation with further rate cuts.
So if you see this in time...you may want to act on the info.
Personally, I would wait and see if Strategy Update called this, just in time...or if it's just a blip.
strategyupdate.com
Disclosure: AUY
And with price of oil is down today to $93 and change, you would expect gold to sink along with it, not start rising against the oil trend?
Bernakie is going to speak in three hours from now, and Wall Street is expecting a sign as to whether they will give up a nice juicy rate cut they are crying for. And although a rate cut would actually weaken the dollar, and add to inflation...perception is reality, and I think Wall Street is betting that Bernakie WILL INDEED indicate an upcoming rate cut, which would weaken the dollar and cause gold to go up:
Oil is down, yet gold is rising as I type this -- just ahead of Bernakie's speech -- when news wires just reported gold was down on a sell off -- and the trend immediately reversed ???
Either it was the world's shortest sell-off...or Wall Street is increasing their position in gold, betting on a weaker dollar and higher inflation with further rate cuts.
So if you see this in time...you may want to act on the info.
Personally, I would wait and see if Strategy Update called this, just in time...or if it's just a blip.
strategyupdate.com
Disclosure: AUY
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
01/09/08 Stock Market Music Video of the Day: KISS - "All Hell's Breaking Loose"
Just because the Dow Jones was down another 239 points on Tuesday, after the biggest down week since the Great Depression, doesn't mean it can't get worse. Gold at a record high! It appears as though world investors are frantically pulling money from the markets and putting it in gold as an inflation bet. And, sources tell Strategy Update that the major financial institutions are investing in oil, so expect the price to remain high as speculators keep the price up, including concerns that rebels in Nigeria may attack African oil supplies. (Reuters says the attacks may happen in days. Obviously, the army is trying to prevent this.)
Expect gold to say at record (and new record) highs today. Gold mining stocks may add to yesterday's soaring shares. Some feel we have hit the resistance point, and although you may see some profit taking...gold should EASILY blow past $900 in early '08, without a sweat. And if it hits $1000...MAN IS THE ECONOMY SCREWED!
Read the threads below on this blog for further explanation as to why KISS - "All Hell's Breaking Loose" is the Strategy Update music video of the day.
strategyupdate.com
AFTERMATH UPDATE: What happened to the stock market on Friday 01/11? (Close enough timing?) This update posted 01/12/08
Disclosure: AUY, MOS
Expect gold to say at record (and new record) highs today. Gold mining stocks may add to yesterday's soaring shares. Some feel we have hit the resistance point, and although you may see some profit taking...gold should EASILY blow past $900 in early '08, without a sweat. And if it hits $1000...MAN IS THE ECONOMY SCREWED!
Read the threads below on this blog for further explanation as to why KISS - "All Hell's Breaking Loose" is the Strategy Update music video of the day.
strategyupdate.com
AFTERMATH UPDATE: What happened to the stock market on Friday 01/11? (Close enough timing?) This update posted 01/12/08
Disclosure: AUY, MOS
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)