What worked in '07, may not work in '08 and beyond. People are used to seeing certain trends and cycles in the market. In the past, if you saw your stock drop from $200 a share, to $150 a share -- most long term investors wouldn't worry -- knowing you can always expect things to rally back eventually.
However, our sources feel we may have felt a fundamental shift as the calendar went from '07, to '08. So if it is true that some of the sectors you used to look to as a "safe", "conservative", "no-brainer" play, may be today's worst nightmare.
And similarly, those areas that used to be a "no way", should now be a "right away".
First of all, the "gold" cat is out of the bag in the first month of '08. First, as investors worry about the high price of oil -- and fear of rebel attacks in Nigeria and elsewhere in the world that may threaten supply. (And the fear, alone, is enough to keep the price higher than supply and demand would merit.)
Then, yesterday Bernakie made all those comments about the need to be flexible and take "substantive action" to do whatever it takes to keep the global economy from slipping away into a black hole.
But of course, that means the dollar will become weaker; oil prices will increase; inflation will rise, affecting the production of food, plastic and other products.
So what is good for the market, isn't always good for everyone else. But this is the way it appears to be headed, at least in the perception of market investors. So that has become the reality. And as we have seen gold rise and maintain record high levels, CNBC has just reported that, "More Central Banks are buying gold." (So that's a real shift in perception compared to what we have seen in the past regarding the confidence of gold investing by safe, conservative banks.)
Secondly, as the headline indicated, sources indicate that agriculture will be the other shift in investor perception. There is a world population boom and these people will have to eat. Also, as other world markets like China and others grow and people move up in the world, they want to improve their diets with more meat and chicken and protein. (And you gotta feed the livestock, along with the people!)
People may look at what has happened to the price of wheat and corn and agriculture stocks like Monsanto and say, "Oh, those prices are way too high. It's gotta come down. This is B.S.! Stay away from commodities. We have seen spikes in the past, only to come back down."
OUR SOURCES SAY IN THE PAST, high spikes up in the price of wheat (for example) were due to supply problems. (A drought or freeze or whatever.) This time, it's due to demand. An increase in demand. And it doesn't appear as though it is a trend that will be reversing anytime soon.
It's already 2008, so it may not be the biggest story of THIS decade...but Strategy Update says Agriculture and the demand for wheat, corn, beans, fertilizer and related products will be the story of the next decade. But the money is to be made starting...
NOW!
strategyupdate.com
Disclosure: MOS
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