StrategyUpdate.com Wall Street Report For Monday 1/28/08: Gold is Up, DOW is Down

1/28 4 PM Closing Bell Update: UGX (gold miner) closed up 20% today! Anyone know why? Gold at new record highs, but most solid miners were up in the 2%-4% range. So what's up with UGX up 20%? Anyway, looks like Wall Street is betting on an agressive Fed rate cut on Wednesday, as we see gold continue to rise and maintain record levels (rather than the ususal profit taking) -- and the DOW closed up 176 points at the closing bell, after dipping down slightly in morning hours. Overall, the mining stocks have a lot of catching up to do, in comparison to gold's meteoric rise. So although gold is at record levels, if you feel it is going to the $1000 level this year, it's not too late for mining stocks. ZD's Palladium pick from last week (PAL) was up 7%, today. Throw in my original gold pick Yamana Gold (AUY) -- and ZD had 3 of the top 3 most "up" gold miners, today. Forget the rest, stick with the best: StrategyUpdate.com

(disclosure: UXG, AUY, EGO, PAL)

11:30 AM UPDATE: Things appear calm at the DOW ahead of further expected Fed rate cuts. Looks as though Wall Street is betting that the Fed will not disappoint with a nice cut on Wednesday -- and people may be sneaking in some last minute positions ahead of the hopeful news that should send the stock market up in confidence -- for the short term. (Subprime/Credit crisis is still out there, though!)

GOLD MINING STOCKS are rising this morning which may signal more expectations that an aggressive Fed cut will weaken the dollar further, which makes gold go up. (And it's already at new record highs today.) Stay away from the miners in Africa though, due to electrical outages. But when the power is back on, they should go up...so you may want to take a chance on that.

MINING STOCK UPDATE: The reason Platinum is up so much today is not only because metals are rising anyway, but because the biggest platinum miner in Australia is shut down for the next couple weeks, so that drove the price up BIG TIME today. Also, PAL (palladuim) was up BIG again today, because that metal is mined by this Australian producer, too. So although it already took a major adjustment up -- with metals continuing to rise in advance of the Fed meeting -- platinum and palladium may continue to be the low key play, that outperforms even gold.

RISK PICK: (DON'T DO IT, BUT I HAVE TO MENTION IT!!!) Harmony HMY is way down today (6%-7% this morning), but they just announced some good news about a new project. They are taking a hit due to African power outages, that may hurt production over the next two weeks. if you are a real cowboy, risk-taker, might be fun to throw a bet down on this one in case it skyrockets back up, if you feel it has already made the negative adjustment and will be closing the gap as the power is restored and gold goes up. OR JUST WATCH AND SEE, LIKE ZD! (If you buy it today, you are basically saying this is as far down as the news will drive the stock, but it may be a couple weeks before it goes up -- and could go down further, a little each day, in the meantime. BUT IT SHOULD BE A FUN ONE TO WATCH.

9:30 AM UPDATE (1/28): DOW down a mild 20 points -- but be careful because the market is very touchy and job numbers and new homes numbers are coming out today. If they are down half a home or half a person more than expected, that could send the market down. Plus, Wall Street is still extra touchy over the financial/credit/subprime crisis that they are still trying to figure out. (Don't worry, it's worse...MUCH WORSE. So be cautious of any rallies/no false sense of hope, please.) McD's earnings (softness in same store sales during December), scared Wall Street into feeling there is U.S. spending softness ahead.

SIRIUS: Been waiting for merger approval with XM by F.C.C. Drudge Report says ruling may be coming down soon. If "yes", stock will double on the news. ZD's Batcomputer says people are taking positions now, saying that Wall Street feel the merger will be approved. If you buy it anywhere below $3.00, you should be real happy. But even in the three dollar range (low threes, hopefully), it you will still be happy if/when the merger is announced. Wish I could buy some! (4PM Closing Bell Update 1/28/08: Sirius closed up 6.57% at the closing bell, which qualifies as a "heartbreaker" since I had to sit on the sidelines and watch, cause I was a little short on cash today.)

1/28 Pre-bell: Gold on the rise toward record highs in overnight trading as U.S. dollar weakens in expectation of further rate cuts this week. Looks like the Dow will be down at the bell. SU says you must be prepared for Bertankie to disappoint Wall Street. (1/27 10pm - will update early AM)