And when gold goes down on Monday, after record highs, remember...it's all about waiting for Bertankie to cut the Fed funds rate at the next meeting. If not...finger on the trigger, y'all.
2pm UPDATE: Dow down 170 points after opening bell rally over concerns over the financial/bond insurance market. Holders beware. Read below on this thread and previous threads for more on this pending market doom of historic proportions. If you feel the market is headed further and further south due to subprime/housing and financial institution crisis -- there are two easy ways to short these markets: SFK (shorts the financials market) and SRS (shorts the real estate market). They are ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) that go up as these sectors stocks go down. Look into ETFs online and I describe them below on previous threads.
CHECK YESTERDAY'S THREAD BELOW: I'm heartbroken and in tears that I was cashless and couldn't take advantage of my Batcomputer's picks. Oh my goodness, is that a heartbreaker!
__________________________________________________________________
1/25/08:
OPENING BELL: Batcomputer says, "UP" at the bell. Have fun with the rally, but please be aware this blog is very concerned about the credit derivatives market with some big numbers due starting early February -- and the bond insurers market as it relates to the financial industry. And of course, subprime, that we feel is much worse than yet revealed. I think this will be the bear that kills the bull for the rest of '08.
But like I said, today...enjoy the rally if it sticks. And remember, the Government keeps coming up with new press releases to try and keep the markets stable because it is election season -- so check back on this blog for updates, because a change in conditions means a change in course.
BULLS BEWARE: Lots of earnings reports this week (and you never know what little indicator will cause a pullback -- and when news continues to get out that Bush's "bond insurers bailout" as announced on Tuesday -- that sent the market up 600 points -- isn't actually in the works in any way, shape or form (besides wishful thinking), look for a slow downward trend that will end up having some boil, once again. (This time slowly, so they won't jump out of the pot.)
And we'll see how the market reacts to news that the "stimulus checks" won't even be sent out until June (more below). But I don't wanna rain on the parade...Batcomputer says rally at the bell y'all. Can y'all say, pre-market trading, y'all? (Sucker...wait for the opening bell at 9:30 am.)
OIL PRICES RISE ON STIMULUS NEWS: Man, these suckers must actually think that this smoke and mirrors, warm and fuzzy, do nothing, geel good economic stimulus package the Government announced yesterday will actually stimulate something besides their political agenda:
NEW YORK (AP) - Oil futures jumped more than $2 a barrel Thursday after the Bush administration and Congressional leaders agreed to an economic stimulus plan that will give most Americans tax rebates of $600 to $1,200, or even more if they have kids.
Prices were already higher after the government reported a drop in heating oil supplies -- and as investors anticipated a stimulus plan. But futures took off, posting their largest gains in over three weeks, on word that an agreement had been reached.
"What's boosting us up today is a little economic optimism because people are going to get a little free money," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp., in Chicago.
The weekly inventory report from the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration showed supplies of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, fell 1.3 million barrels last week, surpassing the average forecast of analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, who said distillate supplies would remain unchanged.
[Meaning more of a reduced supply than they expected, because they think they can churn out oil like Dairy Queen soft serve with the twist of a level.]
That decline was countered by domestic gasoline inventories, which jumped by 5 million barrels, more than triple analyst expectations. Crude inventories rose by 2.3 million barrels, slightly more than analysts had expected.
[OK...so that balanced it out, so now we see the net result of the stimulus announcement=oil prices up with renewed consumer spending confidence. (Even though I say it won't stimulate shiznit.) See next line.]
Because the report was mixed, investors' attention returned to the economy.
Oil prices have fallen in recent days, following equity markets which dropped earlier this week on recession worries. But the stock market's recovery on Wednesday, as well as overnight rallies by stock markets in Europe and Asia, helped push energy futures higher even before the Energy Department issued its report.
Energy investors often view stocks as a proxy for economic growth, fearing that a slowdown would curtail demand for oil and petroleum products such as gasoline and heating oil.
The jump in crude supplies came despite a 233,000 barrel a day decline in crude imports.
STIMULUS PACKAGE: Not good enough, and not soon enough. Checks won't even start going out until June. Then how long until it is spent. Then the effects felt. Then the turnaround based on this non-effective drip in the bucket. Don't keep your hopes up. Hope the market does. They won't.
I HOPE YOU ARE "HEAVY METAL": Hope you bought gold, silver (and platinum) yesterday as early as possible based on the StrategyUpdate.com Investor Alert. Cause not only did it jump up to near record highs -- ZD's Batcomputer as of 12;00 mid 1/25/08 says the upward trend will continue today. But every prediction, these days, needs a huge "*" attached to it, because there are constant announcements coming out of Washington in an attempt to keep markets stabilized.
But regarding gold, I don't think we are looking at any surprises today. So, although I would be nervous buying it today, up so much and at record highs (including being up, most likely in overnight trading hours) -- long term this year, I still think it is going to be more expensive as the months roll on. If you have steel cajones...you take the chance that it will take a dip at some point (as people tend to take profits at these levels) -- and buy it a little cheaper. But ZD always gets nervous that it will go up, and keep going up as the dollar gets weaker and oil rises. So I don't mind paying a little more today (if it does drop, if I feel it will end up closing much higher in future months.)
ZD's favorite gold stocks: MANY, but here are the first two I would mention. GLD is a Gold ETF. The safe way to invest in gold. Won't ever go up as much as others, but won't go down as much either. (Personally, I would never buy this one...too safe...but that's why some like it the most.)
Rangold Mining (GOLD) I have noticed always seems to go up the most when gold is up, and down the least when gold goes down. Although I'm sure the company's fundamentals are good, perhaps it gets a bump just based on the name. (Hmm, I wanna gold stock...AH, G-O-L-D. That must be it?!?!)
UPDATE 1/26-TFN -- Rangold (GOLD)NEGATIVELY BY THE ELECTRICAL POWER OUTAGES IN AFRICA. DO NOT BUY UNTIL THE POWER IS RESTORED. (Unless you wanna buy it cheap, if you feel this is the bottom, because it will go back up when power is restored, so you could see a nice gain since gold is up anyway.)
Whether that's the case, or not...compare it to any other mining stock and you can see for yourself. The poor man's version of GOLD is Eldorado Gold (EGO). GOLD is about $50, EGO is about $6 and looks like they follow the same trend line. But you are always gonna be a tad safer with GOLD if you can afford it.
SUPER SPECIAL PICK: Palladium has already gone up so much, including overnight hours (most likely) -- but PAL (for Palladium) only costs $4 a share and ZD likes palladium as an investment more than gold. (Duh!) So here's a chance to play it at poor man's prices. BUT CHECK OUT THE COMPANY FIRST ON YOUR OWN -- even though ZD would be buying that like a muther-fer with the blindfolds on. (And these metals do go down, too...so it's either a short term trade if you think it's going up today, as I do -- or a long term investment, because it should be at even higher record highs in '08.
(12/25 Pre-bell Announcement) VISTA GOLD ANNOUNCEMENT: With gold rising, this is the type of press release that I have noticed can drive a company's stock a little (or a lot) higher than the rest of the sector. And Vista (VGZ) is a mining stock that passed the ZD litmus test a while ago. In other words, it can hit the top of the charts when gold is up anyway. So this may send it a little higher than the rest, today:
Vista Gold Corp. Announces Completion of Acquisition of Properties Adjacent to the Guadalupe de los Reyes Project in Mexico
DENVER, Jan. 24 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Vista Gold Corp. (Amex: VGZ;SILVER: Silver-lovers will remind you that the metal is down 67% off it's all time high, while gold and palladium have already risen to highs. So they feel silver is poised to really skyrocket if metals continue to. So far, all ZD has noticed is that it continues to go up and down along with gold...but you will always be looking back saying, "wish I had put it in gold". But here's a cheap and easy way to invest in silver, which should be going up anyway -- with or without the extra explosive boom some are hoping for: ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). Like a mutual fund in a stock and very sector selective. The best known one for silver is SLV which trades at around $163. But ZD had to stick to the poor man's version of the silver ETF, DBS which is around $30 a share. And if you do a chart comparison, they trade along the same trend line, almost exactly. (So if Mr. Bigshot SLV ETF is going to go up...ZD's little DBS will go up the same percentage wise y'all. So don't think you're better than me, just cause you own SLV and I got the cheap-ass version.
TSX) is pleased to announce that it has completed the acquisition of
interests in various mineral properties adjacent to Vista's Guadalupe de
los Reyes Project in Sinaloa, Mexico, as previously announced on December
19, 2007. This acquisition has the effect of consolidating Vista's land
position in this area.
9:30am OPENING BELL UPDATE 1/28/05: Vista Gold opened up 9% on the bell, surpassing all other
gold mining stocks which were up nicely, too, with gold at a new record high. PAL is up 9%, too. Vista will
level off, I'm sure, but should still be an out-performer for the day against all other gold stocks.
BERNAKIE MAY HAVE TIPPED HAT: Bernakie said the Fed did not have any information about the French Rouge trader who lost $7 billion, and has some saying that may have triggered the huge fallout of the stock market on Tuesday. So could this mean that the Fed had the wrong info, and now they may feel the economy isn't as bad as it appeared on Tuesday -- and now may not cut again at the next meeting. So if you own bought gold because you feel further rate cuts may drive it higher...you better have your finger on the "sell" button they day he delivers the news at the next meeting. (VERY IMPORTANT TO CONSIDER THIS. Wouldn't be surprised if they cite this as a reason why they don't cut. ESPECIALLY since oil is rising and further cuts would drive it up even further along with inflation.)
ZD Feels AT&T Earning Comment May Indicate Economic Hard Times Ahead:
Shares of the telecommunications giant tumbled two weeks ago when Chairman and CEO Randall Stephenson told analysts at a conference that the company was seeing weakness in its broadband Internet and traditional wire phone businesses because of disconnections for nonpayment.
"Both products are impacted by some of the things we see in the housing market, slowdowns in home sales and new construction," Rick Lindner, AT&T's chief financial officer, said during a call with analysts.
Still, the company expects double-digit growth in its adjusted earnings per share for the year.
"The economy is always a risk, but when you look across our business, we're relatively defensive in these kinds of downturns," Lindner said.
Shares slid 90 cents, more than 2 percent, to $35.79 in afternoon trading.
EARNING'S WEEK FAVORITE: Corning (GLW) reports earnings on January 28th at 8:30 am. You remember Corning: They made all those casserole dishes to cook with and was an old, outdated company. They are a glass company -- and here's why ZD likes Corning: They make this new bendable fiber that cable companies can use to install cable hook-ups where they previously couldn't reach. (Especially apartments and other hard to reach units.) The stuff is flying off the spool like fishing line at a bait shot across from the Marina. Plus, Corning makes the glass that the HD TVs need for the panel. They are trying to produce them as fast as humanly and techonologically possible. Let's just say this area of their business is profitable, these days. So even though it was up 4% today, when earning come out, I have a feeling it will be trading much higher and will be an addition to the "heartbreakers club." (The stocks I didn't have cash to buy, and had to watch the rocket take off with out me. Aaaaaaaaaahh!)
THE DOLLAR: Is dropping faster today than Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa's re-election chances based on the people's disdain for his shady Prop S phone and internet tax that will hurt the L.A. City economy.
CORN: Price of corn will continue to be inflated, in part, thanks to it's use in ethanol production. People are saying the "ying" ain't worth the "yang" because the use for ethanol will inflate food prices. They use corn for everything including sweeteners. They have a corn ETF called CPO that ZD bought a teeny-weeny amount of a while ago for when the numbers come out. So maybe you wanna watch this one from the sidelines and see how it plays out.
Bankers Downplay Reports of Bond Insurer Rescue: Bankers who met with New York insurance regulators to discuss a reported bailout of troubled bond insurers downplayed the meeting's significance Thursday, with one calling it a "non-event."
New York Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo said a bailout would involve "complicated issues."
Bankers told CNBC that there was no consensus formed at the meeting and no movement on creating substantial plans for a rescue. Moreover, reports of the meeting may have made a bad situation for the industry worse, bankers said, as a subsequent jump in bond insurer stock prices scared off private equity firms that may otherwise have injected capital into the companies.
News of the meeting helped boost the overall stock market Wednesday.
But shares of both MBIA MBIA and Ambac Financial Group AMBAC Financial Group Inc ABK were sharply lower Thursday after skyrocketing higher the day before.
Regulators met with a number of investment banks to determine if a bailout can be worked out for companies that insure municipal bonds; the insurers have been badly hurt in the meltdown of subprime mortgages, which could lead to a spike in insurance claims.
New York's top insurance regulator himself appeared to play down reports of a bond insurer rescue plan in a statement Thursday. Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo said it will take time to implement a series of measures to prop up the bond insurance industry and that his agency won't comment on widely reported details of the plan.
"Clearly it is important to resolve issues related to the bond insurers as soon as possible," Dinallo said. "However, it must be understood that these are complicated issues involving a number of parties and any effective plan will take some time to finalize."
News reports and analysts have said the plan could include investment banks providing as much as $15 billion to help struggling companies.
Analyst Steve Stelmach wrote in a research note Thursday a bailout could entail investment banks providing $5 billion immediately to help struggling companies. That could satisfy capital shortfalls at Security Capital Assurance, Ambac and other insurers. The investment banks could pour in an additional $10 billion in the future, Stelmach said.
[But they just said it isn't going to be happening so quickly. So if the fear of this crisis sent the market tumbling on Tuesday, so fast and hard that Bush had to come out to make an announcement of this proposed bail-out -- which sent it skyrocketing up 600 points...
what do you think the market is going to do when they hear that it isn't a reality?]
California Supreme Court rules employers can fire workers for using medical marijuana
By PAUL ELIAS Jan. 24, 2008
(Excerpt)
SAN FRANCISCO - Employers can fire workers who use medical marijuana even if it was legally recommended by a doctor, the California Supreme Court ruled Thursday, dealing the state another setback in its standoff with federal law enforcement.
The high court upheld a small Sacramento telecommunications company's firing of a man who flunked a company-ordered drug test. Gary Ross held a medical marijuana card authorizing him to use the drug to treat a back injury sustained while serving in the Air Force.
The company, Ragingwire Inc., argued that it rightfully fired Ross because all marijuana use is illegal under federal law, which does not recognize the medical marijuana laws in California and 11 other states.
The justices upheld that argument in a 5-2 decision.
"No state law could completely legalize marijuana for medical purposes because the drug remains illegal under federal law," Justice Kathryn Werdegar wrote for the majority.
StrategyUpdate.com
(investor's research page/links to all the sites i monitor)
disclosure: cpo; plus these positions taken since this thread was initially poste): pal, ego
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